Saudi Arabia expects above-average precipitation and temperature rise up to 3°C in October–November 2026

According to the forecast of Saudi Arabia's National Center of Meteorology (NCM), above-average precipitation is expected across most regions of the country in October and November 2026. In this forecast Mecca and Medina mean the regions of the same names, not only the cities.

In October, the probability of exceeding normal precipitation reaches 80 % across much of the territory, including the coasts of the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. Moderate to very heavy rains are expected, which could become extremely heavy in Tabuk, Medina, Al-Baha, Asir, Al-Jawf, Hail, Qassim, the Northern Borders, and Riyadh (excluding southern parts), as well as the western part of Najran. In Mecca, Jazan, and the Eastern Province (excluding the southern part), extremely heavy precipitation is possible.

In November, the probability of above-average precipitation remains at 75 % across most regions, with expectations of heavy to very heavy rains. The forecast covers Mecca, Riyadh, Al-Baha, Asir, Jazan, Al-Jawf, the Northern Borders, Tabuk, the Eastern Province, much of Qassim and Hail, as well as the northern and southern districts of Medina.

Temperatures will also be above normal: the average is forecast to be up to 3 °C above normal in October, about 2.5 °C above normal in November and 1.5 °C above normal in December. The greatest increase is expected in the southeastern part of Mecca, eastern Al-Baha, much of Asir, northeastern Jazan, much of Najran, the southern and southwestern parts of the Eastern Province, and the southern part of Riyadh.

By December, precipitation is expected to return to average levels across most of the country, although in some areas of the Eastern Province and Mecca there remains a 40‑50 % probability of above-average precipitation, which could remain heavy to very heavy.

Sources: Saudi Gazette

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